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2024 US Election: Old Biden wobbles behind indicted Trump in ‘swing states’ polls

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Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden answers a question as President Donald Trump listens during the second and final presidential debate at the Curb Event Center at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, US, October 22, 2020.—Reuters 

One year ahead of the US presidential election, polls show that Democratic President Joe Biden is trailing Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in five out of the six most crucial battleground states.

These findings are primarily attributed to American concerns about Biden’s age and dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy.

The New York Times and Siena College Polls, released on Sunday, indicate that Trump is leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, while Biden maintains an advantage in Wisconsin.

In the 2020 election, Biden emerged victorious in all six of these states, which are traditionally considered swing states. However, the current polls show Trump with an average lead of 48% to 44% in these key states.

Presidential elections in the United States are often determined by the outcomes in a handful of these swing states. Biden’s wins in these states in the 2020 election were pivotal in securing his victory. To secure re-election, he would likely need to carry many of these states once again.

In response to the poll results, a Biden campaign spokesperson, Kevin Munoz, noted that predictions made more than a year in advance can evolve. He pointed to a past Gallup prediction that had incorrectly projected an 8-point loss for President Obama, who ultimately won the election handily.

Munoz emphasised the campaign’s focus on reaching and mobilising a diverse coalition of voters, highlighting the choice between their popular agenda and the Republican “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) ideology. He stressed that their strategy is to concentrate on their work rather than worrying about poll numbers.

The polls also suggest that Biden’s multiracial and multigenerational coalition may be weakening. His lead among voters under 30 is slim, and his advantage among Hispanic voters has diminished to single digits. 

In urban areas, his lead is only half of Trump’s advantage in rural regions. Most notably, black voters, who traditionally support Democrats, are showing 22 % support for Trump in these states, a significant departure from previous elections.

As the election is still a year away, some experts believe that Democratic concerns are premature. Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, emphasised that the economy plays a critical role, and it takes time for people to adapt to new economic realities. 

Sabato cautioned against unjustified panic and stressed that the polls serve as a useful warning to Democrats about the work ahead.

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